There are now just three rounds of the Sky Bet Championship season remaining – but everything is still to be decided at the top of the table.

Only two points separate Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds as we head into the final run-in, while Southampton are four points outside the automatic promotion places.

Ipswich and Leeds have played one game more than Leicester and Southampton’s 42 – if those two games in hand are won, the gap separating first and fourth would be cut to just four points.

Saints “changed the dynamic” of the promotion race, in the words of boss Russell Martin, with Tuesday’s 3-0 win over Preston – racking up a third victory in a row to re-ignite their hopes of a top-two finish.

That is, remarkably, the only good form of those in the hunt now. Of their three rivals, only Leicester have won any of their last three games and even that was a late 2-1 victory over lowly Birmingham.

So who wants promotion the most? Who will hold their nerve to the last? And who is going to be left at the mercy of the play-offs?

Here, we take a look at the race for the Premier League, and how it could potentially go down to goals scored to decide promotion…

What does each team need?

If Ipswich and Leicester win all of their remaining games, they will be promoted. But the Championship rarely works like that, so here’s each individual side’s permutations…

• Ipswich must win all three of their matches to be sure of reaching the Premier League, as it stands. One draw would give Leeds and Southampton the chance to match their points tally – at which point goal difference may decide who makes it.
• Leicester can afford to lose one of their four remaining matches and still be certain to make it with three wins. Anything less than that and both Southampton and Leeds could overtake them.
• Leeds must pick up one point more than Leicester or two more than Ipswich over the remaining games to move level with either of the sides ahead of them – and with the best goal difference in the league (+42), this may be their route to success.
• Southampton will be in the same boat as Leeds if they win their game in hand, but they have the worst goal difference out of the top four (+30) so must either get scoring or end on more points than their promotion rivals to go up automatically.

Current standings

How the table has changed

Upcoming fixtures

The form guide: How the top four have fared

The charts below highlight how the top three sides sides are close to their season lows for form, with Leeds averaging just one point per game over their past five fixtures, followed by Leicester (1.5) and Ipswich (1.6).

Could promotion race go down to goals scored?

What if two or more sides finish level on points? Well, Leicester and Leeds have superior, and almost identical, goal difference – so goals scored could split the runners-up and third place. However, the Foxes appear to have the edge with one game in hand.

Should two or more sides finish on the same number of points than they will be divided on goal difference. However, with Ipswich and Southampton just two apart in terms of goal difference, there is every chance that if they finish on the same number of points and with an identical goal difference, promotion could then be determined on goals scored.

The same is true for Leicester and Leeds, who also have a very similar record in terms of goals. Should points or goals not be enough, then promotion would be decided by head-to-head record.

The Sky Sports Championship Predictions podcast!

Sky Sports duo Simeon Gholam and David Prutton take a look ahead at Gameweek 44 in the Sky Bet Championship, predicting the results of every fixture; listen to the podcast below or via any of your regular podcast providers.

1st – Ipswich, 89 points

Ipswich still lead the way in the Sky Bet Championship with three games remaining, but their form has started to buckle at the wrong time.

Since their dramatic last-minute win over Southampton on Easter Monday, Kieran McKenna’s men have picked up just two of the nine points available, after the East Anglian derby defeat to Norwich and draws with Watford and Middlesbrough.

The two-point advantage over third-placed Leeds means their chances are still favourable, but with their final three opponents still chasing their own targets at both ends of the table, results must improve if they are to fend off their rivals to achieve back-to-back promotions.

2nd – Leicester, 88 points

Leicester looked on track to keep their Championship title hopes in their own hands after successive wins over Norwich and Birmingham followed a worrying run of one win in six, yet back-to-back 1-0 away defeats at Millwall and Plymouth have dented their hopes of automatic promotion.

The days where they were on course to break Reading’s record points total of 106 feel like an awfully long time ago now.

Much like Ipswich, the Foxes’ final games of the season do not look anywhere near straightforward. They do still have one game in hand over both Ipswich and Leeds, though that is against Southampton, who are on the charge.

3rd – Leeds, 87 points

Leeds put together a superb run of 15 games unbeaten between New Year’s Day and April 6, which was enough to briefly take them to the top of the Championship, but, again, they have stumbled under the pressure.

Daniel Farke’s side have picked up just one point from their last three, losing to Coventry and Blackburn either side of a 0-0 draw against Sunderland at Elland Road on April 9 and need to hope the teams around them continue to suffer a dip in form in order to try and avoid the play-offs.

4th – Southampton, 84 points

It looked as though Saints had dropped out of the automatic promotion race after a run of three defeats in four in February saw them lose a touch of momentum when others were continuing to pick it up.

But the tables have been turned now; it seems as though they are right back in the mix, having won five and drawn two of the last eight. The latest of those came on Tuesday night, when they eased to a 3-0 win over Preston at St Mary’s.

They still have a game in hand to play against Leicester and, given each team’s respective form, they will fancy their chances of winning.

Who has the easiest run-in?

Ipswich have the easiest run-in on paper with their average opponent ranking 12.3 in the table – arguably, skewed by facing 22nd-placed Huddersfield on the final day after tougher opponents Hull and Coventry on the road – while Leeds (10.7), Leicester and Southampton (both 9.0) have tougher schedules.

Who is in the mix for the play-offs?

Predicted final table

Data provider Opta still predict the current top two will snap up the automatic promotion places come May 4, but with the Foxes finishing as champions and Ipswich as runners-up.

However, Leeds still have a 43.1 per cent chance of a direct pathway back to the top flight, while the Saints remain underdogs with just 10.8 per cent.

Ad content | Stream Sky Sports on NOW

Stream Sky Sports live with no contract on a Month or Day membership on NOW. Instant access to live action from the Premier League, EFL, F1, England Cricket and so much more.