Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, we report on Donald Trump’s accelerated vice presidential selection process. Plus, chief political analyst Chuck Todd asks if Trump’s guilty verdict would matter more if President Joe Biden was more popular.

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Trump’s VP search enters a new phase

By Henry J. Gomez, Matt Dixon, Jonathan Allen and Dasha Burns

Donald Trump’s search for a running mate is intensifying, as the former president awaits sentencing on felony charges and prepares for next month’s Republican National Convention.

Vice presidential contenders recently received vetting materials, five sources familiar with the process told NBC News.

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Trump’s search, according to one source, is heavily concentrated on four top prospects:

• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum
• Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida
• Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina
• Sen. JD Vance of Ohio

Another source described a three-way competition involving Burgum, Rubio and Vance.

It’s unclear, though, who has been asked to provide vetting details that could rule them in or out. Burgum, who has been spending more time with Trump in recent weeks, is among those who have received a request, said one source familiar with the ask. Advisers to Burgum and other would-be running mates declined or did not respond to requests for comment this week.

Sources plugged into conversations about the search cautioned that Trump is working from a fluid shortlist that at times includes more than a half-dozen names. Additions, subtractions and the emergence of dark horse candidates remain possible. 

Trump and his advisers have kept a close hold on the search, which until recently had been relatively quiet, as the presumptive GOP nominee stood trial on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to an adult film actor. 

Trump has said in interviews that a decision on his running mate will likely come closer to the convention, which opens July 15 in Milwaukee. In 2016, he announced Mike Pence as his running mate days before that year’s nominating convention in Cleveland.

Read more on the veepstakes →

The fog of polls hits the 2024 campaign

By Chuck Todd

After the historic felony conviction of a former president who is also the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, the entire political community is trying to figure out what it means now and what it will mean in November.

There was a time when immoral and unethical behavior was a political death knell. But as big tech and social media have algorithmically accelerated our tribal instincts, it’s never been easier for anyone, guilty or not, to claim victimhood with some segment of the public. The red and blue tribes have an amazing ability these days to compartmentalize the bad behavior of folks on their side, while crying foul about an opponent with similar or worse characteristics.

To me, the real question of whether the verdict will have an impact on voters lies in the hands of the two presidential campaigns. How much is the verdict front and center versus simply setting the atmospherics?

The question I keep asking myself is this: Would this verdict matter more to voters if President Joe Biden had a higher approval rating?

It’s an impossible hypothetical to test at this point, but one can’t help but wonder if some voters are overlooking Trump’s moral and ethical failings simply because they don’t think Biden is up to the current job. Of course, if Biden were in better political standing, the GOP might have gone in a different direction during the primaries. 

The point is, politics is a zero-sum game, and this is a binary choice in which the public believes it has to elect someone who is flawed. That goes back to a question about the two types of undecided voters in this election: the aspirational and the transactional. Aspirational voters vote on what’s in the best interests of the country, and transactional voters vote on what they believe is in their own best interests. I’m not sure there are many aspirational voters left in the undecided column, but I do believe there are quite a few transactional voters left.

So far, what limited polling I’ve seen (including private campaign polling) indicates that the verdict has barely moved the numbers in the last week. Of course, “barely” could still be decisive in a close election, so I don’t want to dismiss the idea that even a movement of 1 to 2 points wouldn’t matter.

Read more from Chuck →

That’s all from The Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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