How fund managers at Fidelity International see China’s stimulus plans
For two fund managers at Fidelity International, Beijing’s latest stimulus announcements were significant enough for them to buy more beaten-down real estate stocks. Chinese authorities have released a series of incremental measures since late September that range from cutting interest rates to extending financial support for finishing construction on apartments that have already been sold. “This round of the policy pivot is quite significant in the sense that it is a well-coordinated [number of] supporting measures issued by different levels of government bodies,” Theresa Zhou, a fund manager at Fidelity International, told CNBC in an interview Wednesday. “We have been moderately increasing our position in China,” Zhou said. After the September policy announcements, she said the firm turned more positive on “certain cyclical names” in China real estate, after previously focusing on online platforms in the sector. If household confidence returns, that can pave the way for real estate prices to stabilize, especially in China’s larger cities, she said. As of late 2023 and early this year, Zhou said she had been concerned about the housing downcycle given relatively high inventories and falling home prices. Zhou and Ben Li are co-managers of Fidelity’s Greater China Fund . The firm does not disclose exact stock transactions. “We have been selectively increasing positions in quality companies in say the consumer and property sectors,” Li said. “In terms of consumer and property sector, we think they were hurt by the macro challenges in the last few years [and with the policy turning, some] may start to see incremental improvements.” “We think experienced-based consumption will continue to do well,” he said, noting the firm’s investment in online travel agencies. One of the top 10 holdings of Fidelity’s Greater China Fund is Chinese online booking platform Trip.com . In McKinsey senior partner Daniel Zipser’s latest assessment of Chinese consumer sentiment , he pointed out that property transactions in October and the first half of November rose by 2%, the first increase this year. That’s according to the firm’s analysis of daily transaction data for 30 cities. “It is fair to say that October has seen an uptick in consumption, creating positive momentum,” Zipser said. While China has not handed out cash to the public, authorities have used targeted trade-in subsidies to spur purchases of home appliances and other big-ticket items. Companies, such as Alibaba , have noted a boost in sales. Those trade-in measures helped increase panel TV sales in China since the third quarter, Nomura analysts said in a Nov. 20 note. They estimate that, in a sign of growing demand, utilization of TV production lines at BOE and TCL Technology will likely increase in November from October. Nomura rates the two Chinese electronics companies, both listed in Shenzhen, as buy. The two Fidelity fund managers emphasized that their strategy focuses on selecting companies based on their individual competitive advantage. They added that it will take time to see the impact of stimulus, and said that they are watching upcoming government meetings in December and March for more policy details. China’s top leaders typically gather in mid-December to discuss economic plans for the year ahead. Those measures and growth targets are then announced at a meeting of parliament in March. “The positive change from that stimulus package is removing the tail risk and putting a floor [under] the market,” Zhou said, noting she is “cautiously optimistic.” Earnings comments in the last two weeks from major Chinese companies have underscored how it will take time to see the impact of stimulus . “When we talk to companies on the ground after the earnings, it’s positive that we do sense some improvement in their tone in terms of the enterprise confidence and also their expectation for the next year,” Zhou said. In terms of geopolitical risk, she pointed out that Chinese companies have built out their overseas supply chain, making them better prepared today than they were several years ago for President-elect Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs.
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