The Israeli military says 99% of the missiles and drones fired by Iran overnight were intercepted without hitting their targets. Iran said the assault was in response to a deadly attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria two weeks ago.

Where this goes next from here depends in large part on how Israel decides to respond to last night’s attack.

Countries in the region and elsewhere, including those that deeply dislike the Iranian regime, have urged restraint.

Iran’s position is along the lines of: “Account settled, that is the end of the matter, do not hit back at us or we will mount a much stronger attack against you that you will not be able to ward off.”

But, Israel has already vowed “a significant response” and its government has often been called one of the most hardline in Israeli history.

It responded to the murderous Hamas-led attacks of 7 October on southern Israel within hours and then spent the next six months battering the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s war cabinet is unlikely to leave this direct attack from Iran unanswered, however calibrated and limited its effect has been on the ground.

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