An expensive, personal, very close presidential race careens toward an uncertain end
Six months from Election Day, American voters are confronting a presidential race that looks stable at a glance — and is roiling with uncertainty beneath the surface.
For the first time in more than a century, Americans will choose between two presumptive major-party nominees who have already served as commander-in-chief: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
But while the matchup has long been expected, Americans are sour about it: Election interest hit a 20-year low in the latest NBC News poll, and majorities of registered voters have unfavorable views of both men. That means barring a big change, the election will be decided by voters with negative views of both Biden and Trump — not only who they pick but whether they decide to participate at all in what’s expected to be the most expensive presidential race in American history.
Trump holds a narrow 2-point lead among registered voters, inside the margin of error, in NBC News’ April poll, in an election where both candidates appear to have a different theory of the case. Biden is leaning hard on issues like abortion rights, where polls show he has the upper hand, while utilizing a significant fundraising advantage.
But polls also show a majority of Americans disapprove of Biden’s job in office — an opening Trump has seized to hammer Biden on issues like the economy and the border, all while looking to energize his base as he faces dozens of federal and state charges across four different cases. Meanwhile, third-party candidates are seeking to capitalize on apathy toward the major candidates.
Here’s a look at where the 2024 presidential race stands six months out — in the polls, on the balance sheet, in key battlegrounds and more.
Trump’s narrow edge over Biden
Despite a turbulent and chaotic news environment, the contest between Biden and Trump remains both close and stable with six months to go until Election Day, according to most polls.
NBC News’ latest national survey shows Trump ahead by 2 points among registered voters, 46%-44% — well within the poll’s margin of error.
What also stands out is how the race has barely budged over the year, with Trump’s share stuck between 45% and 47%. Biden’s has fluctuated more, but only a little more, between a high of 49% and a low of 42%.