Arizona Latinos weigh disappointment with Trump and Biden, especially on the border
Polling shows that Latino voters broadly say that former President Donald Trump would do a better job securing the border than President Joe Biden. And a new focus group of Latino voters in Arizona who are frustrated with both major party nominees illustrated why the border has become such a political mess for Biden.
Trumpâs tough talk on the border, and the actions he took as president, did not come close to winning unilateral praise from the dozen participants in the latest NBC News Deciders Focus Group series, produced in collaboration with Engagious, Syracuse University and Sago. The focus group specifically recruited participants who had soured on both Biden and Trump, an important swing cohort.
But from their vantage point, as key voters in a pivotal border state, more of the participants preferred Trumpâs clarity on the issue compared to what many saw as a struggle by Biden to control immigration and secure the border â and, more broadly, to follow through on lofty 2020 campaign promises.
âI just feel like thereâs not a clear, concise plan. Thereâs just this hot mess of: âOh, we want people to come over, we donât want people to come over.ââ said Nicole G., a 39-year-old woman from Glendale who felt so negative about both major party candidates she currently backs independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Overall, eight of the 12 focus group participants said that Trump would do better than Biden on the border, while only three chose Biden and one wouldnât choose. The consensus among the panel was that the border would remain a top emphasis for Trump and that, even if his policies could be harsh, he sent a clear message to those trying to cross the border illegally.Â
âHis policies were more strict,â Melissa G., a 43-year-old from Phoenix said of the former presidentâs approach to the border. She said she would vote for Kennedy if given the chance, but Trump if not.
âWe see the results of whatâs going on now with Biden,â she continued, adding: âDroves of immigrants coming over. I donât particularly think that one was better than the other, but I do feel like there does need to be more stricter rules.âÂ
Enrique M., a 48-year-old from San Tan Valley who would vote for Trump, argued that migrants âself-deportedâ during Trumpâs presidency due to his policies and tone.Â
âThereâs this assumption that heâs not welcoming, he does not like migrants. So people, just by him being elected, [will say]: âWell, weâre not going to go to the States because weâre not welcome there,ââ he said. He added: âThere are plenty of laws, but the administration tells the people that enforce those laws whether to enforce them or to turn a blind eye. I believe he would encourage them to enforce those laws.âÂ
Polling continues to suggest that immigration is among the top issues for voters broadly across the country, though it is typically not as big a focus as the economy (depending on how polls lump the issues together). Immigration was virtually tied with inflation and cost of living among the top issues in the April NBC News national poll. A May survey by The New York Times and Siena College found immigration tied in second with abortion, behind the economy, as the most important issues to Arizona voters as they make their 2024 choice.
And a late March CNBC national poll found Trump with a 30-point edge with registered voters on the question of which nominee would handle immigration and border security better, including a 23-point edge among Latino voters. Â
âWhen you listen to these respondents complain about what they see as Bidenâs ineffective border policy, which they view as part of a larger pattern of presidential inertia, you start to grasp why he is struggling to win over Hispanic Americans as compared to 2020,â said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the sessions.Â
Meanwhile, less than six months out from Election Day in one of the most competitive states in the nation, not a single participant said theyâve seen any meaningful outreach from either the Trump or Biden campaigns.
The few who preferred Bidenâs approach to the issue framed him as more compassionate â meshing with NBC Newsâ late January polling, which found registered voters overwhelmingly saying Trump would do better at âsecuring the border and controlling immigrationâ but giving Biden a significant edge on the question of âtreating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights.âÂ
Even those who didnât prefer Biden on the broader issue of handling the border and immigration agreed with that diagnosis of his approach â nine of the 12 respondents said Biden would treat migrants more humanely than Trump.Â
âHeâd be better because heâs tried to expedite the process for the asylum-seekers,â Kasia C-V., a 27-year-old from Avondale who said sheâd vote for Biden, said of the current president. âI just think he would view the situation with a little bit more compassion than just being ‘anti-immigration, no exceptions, you donât belong.’â
As politicians weigh how to prioritize securing the border with finding a solution for the millions of undocumented people in America, seven said the former was more important, while four chose the latter.Â
More participants blamed Biden than Trump for the lack of a compromise on the issue. Those who chose Trump criticized him for sinking deals for political reasons, while those who pointed the finger at Biden said that he has fallen flat as president after arguing that his experience in politics would help break through partisan gridlock in Washington.
âThereâs so many times where I tune into the news, and there are bills getting passed, and either I always hear that Trump doesnât like a certain part of the bill, and then just rejects it all,â said Manny R., a 24-year-old from Mesa who currently says he wonât vote in the fall.
âHe promised to do a lot for [the] border,â Melissa G. said. âEven if we disagree with the way Trump went about specific things with his border control, he did something, at least, about it.âÂ
But even among those who support Trump or his approach to the border, one signature piece of his plan fell flat: his border wall.Â
Only one person said theyâd like to see Trump finish the wall, with the rest arguing it was a waste of money and ineffective.Â
âMost of the illegal immigrants in our country overstay their work visas, theyâre not coming through the southern border. And most of the drugs that are being brought into our country are not coming through the southern border, theyâre being brought through legal ports. So it just seems [like] nonsense,â Kasia said.Â
Margaret Talev, the director of Syracuse Universityâs Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship in Washington, told NBC she was âstruckâ with the consistent views blaming Biden for a lack of compromise, even as Biden criticizes Trump for recently shooting down a bipartisan border deal.
âThey view Biden as failing to take actions at the border â and they credit Trump with trying to take action even if they disagreed with many of the actions themselves. Trumpâs promise to build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico may be his best known plan â these voters panned the idea and donât want him to try again if heâs re-elected â yet they donât hold it against him,â she added.
An important decision on abortion looms
Arizona will have more than the presidential candidates on the ballot this fall. Voters there will also decide whether to incorporate a âfundamental rightâ to abortion care into the state constitution, amid a tumultuous stretch for abortion laws in the state.
In April, the state Supreme Court ruled that Arizonaâs near-total ban on abortion dating from 1864 was still in effect, instead of the 15-week ban that had been passed in 2022. Earlier this month, Arizona legislators repealed that ban and, with the governorâs signature, the 15-week ban is now the law of the land. The voter-led ballot measure would expand that significantly.
Few focus group participants displayed a clear understanding of the current abortion laws in the state â many still believe abortion is illegal in Arizona, and many admitted they are uncertain about what the law actually is.
Eight said that they would vote for the constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights in the state, significantly more than those who said theyâd back Biden, who has made protecting access to abortion the centerpiece of his presidential campaign. (Read on for more about how the participants are wrestling with their presidential vote.)
âIn the field that I work in, I see a lot of mothers who are faced with decisions when the babies have lethal anomalies. And I donât think itâs right to not give them a choice to end that pregnancy because thereâs severe psychological damages to go on with a pregnancy that is not viable,â said Michelle A., a 39-year-old from Laveen who would back Green Party candidate Jill Stein if given the option, but Biden if not.Â
Even those who leaned more conservative, either on the issue or abortion or otherwise, showed sympathy toward the amendment and even a possible interest in voting to protect abortion rights.Â
Enrique M., the Trump voter, repeatedly criticized those who supported âinfanticideâ but wouldnât commit to even voting on the amendment either way, as he wrestled with how to weigh his own personal beliefs with a concern about restricting the rights of others.Â
âIâm going to teach my daughters what I believe is correct, and hopefully they abide by that. But at the end of the day, theyâre going to do what theyâre going to do. Right? And do I want them to go to jail because they violated that? Probably not,â he said.Â
Melissa G., who said sheâd back Kennedy if given the chance and Trump if not, also said sheâs âon the fenceâ because of similar concerns.Â
âI understand that the fetus is not viable prior to that, but I also see what my religion teaches about that,â she said. âThe biggest consequence we see is having our rights taken from us, and thatâs a huge right for women. So I think once we give into one, it can easily be anything else. And so, once we see that happening, itâs a scary thought for us Americans to basically hand that decision over to others.âÂ
How the issue will factor into other choices by these voters is more complicated. Only a handful said it would be a big factor in who they vote for in November â after struggling with how sheâd vote on the abortion measure, Melissa G. said it could be a mistake if Democrats and Biden are âassuming most Americansâ stance on abortion is that vital.âÂ
Interest in RFK, but will it last?
Another common thread among these voters, who say they dislike both Trump and Biden, is an openness to voting for Kennedy and, to a lesser extent, Stein.Â
In a head-to-head between Biden and Trump, five said theyâd pick Biden, three chose Trump, and four said they wouldnât vote. When the choices were expanded to include Kennedy, Stein and activist Cornel West, two Trump voters and one Biden voter changed their vote to Kennedy, two Biden voters changed their vote to Stein, and two people who said they wouldnât vote chose Kennedy.Â
Kennedy led the five-way contest among these voters, who all said they disliked both Biden and Trump. Kennedy had five votes, followed by a tie with Biden and Stein at two, one vote for Trump and two who said they wouldnât vote.Â
The Kennedy-curious largely didnât show a deep familiarity with his policy platforms, instead pointing to his family legacy.
Ruben M., a 57-year-old from Gilbert who moved from Biden to Kennedy when given the chance, pointed to his âfamily history of being in politics.âÂ
Melissa G., a 43-year-old from Phoenix who moved from Trump to Kennedy when given the opportunity, echoed that point.Â
âItâs really just past history, a family history for him, basically what his uncle did for our country,â she said. âI havenât really looked up his policies, but based on who we have, I would lean toward him.âÂ
And Aysaiah D., a 26-year old from Peoria who moved from Trump to Kennedy when given the option, said that Kennedy âseemed very, very knowledgeable on our U.S. history from the â60s up until nowâ in a recent interview he watched. He added that he thought Kennedy walked the âthe line really well between not being too conservative, not being too democratic.â
Their lack of deep convictions about Kennedy makes it unclear whether theyâll actually stick with him and vote for him in November, if heâs able to make it onto the ballot. What is clear is that these voters are not happy with the choices they face in November.
âI definitely would not be voting for Biden â he doesnât match up with any of my beliefs,â Nicole G. said. She said she âhad a really hard time voting forâ Trump in 2016 and ultimately did because he âlined up with a lot of our beliefs and morals and values as a familyâ and she hoped he would grow into the office.
âAnd then as a president, I was ashamed that I had voted for him,â Nicole G. continued. âHeâs a reckless leader that should never be in leadership, so thereâs no way I can vote for him again.â