This morning warning sirens sounded across northern Israel as they do most days. The army said later that it was a false alarm. But for the people of Israel it was a reminder – if one were needed – of just how fast and how easily Iran could retaliate if it wanted to.

For north of the border in Lebanon lie some 150,000 missiles pointed at Israel by the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah. These are not basic rockets fired out of tubes but advanced, accurate and powerful missiles that could reach targets in Israel within minutes. And they could be deployed on Iran’s instructions at a moment’s notice.

And yet despite the reported Israeli retaliation against Iran, the streets of Jerusalem were calm, as people went about their business preparing for Shabbat. Joggers were out in force as usual on the beaches of Tel Aviv. The authorities said there was no change in advice to the public; there were no instructions for people to head to shelters.

This reflected the fact that Israel’s air strike on Iran appeared initially to be limited in scope and scale. Yes, Israel had chosen to attack on the birthday of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who turned 85 today.

But if the strike was against military targets that were perhaps associated with Iran’s attack on Israel last weekend – such as an airbase or drone factory or missile storage facility – then that could be seen as the restrained response Israel’s Western allies were looking for.

Diplomats in Europe and the United States feared Israel could respond with what is known locally as a “spectacular”, a strike perhaps that exceeded the scale of Iran’s last weekend that involved more than 300 drones and missiles. Or perhaps that targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities. All of which could have triggered a similar Iranian retaliation, risking all-out regional war.

But instead Israel appears to be sending a message to Tehran that it can attack deep within Iranian territory without restraint. In other words, Israel can attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – not far from the reported location of the strike – but chose not to on this occasion.

Jonathan Conricus, a former IDF spokesman, said: “Iran seeks to return to the shadows and is downplaying the Israeli strike on the strategic city of Isfahan, but I think they’ve gotten the message: Israel can penetrate Iranian defences and strike wherever it wants.”

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