Is Myanmar's army reversing its losses? It's complicated
By Jonathan Head
The fortunes of war along Myanmar’s border with Thailand have been turning with bewildering speed.
Two weeks after losing control of their base in Myawaddy, a vital border crossing, soldiers loyal to the military junta that seized power in a coup three years ago have retaken it.
The embattled junta, which has suffered a series of humiliating defeats in other parts of the country, appears to have held the line in Myawaddy. But the picture is a lot more complicated than this simple narrative suggests.
The sudden capture by the Karen National Union (KNU) of all the military bases near Myawaddy earlier this month seemed to herald a significant shift in the civil war which erupted after the junta seized power in a coup three years ago.
It was the first time in decades that the KNU, Myanmar’s longest-running insurgent group, had controlled the town, a real prize as most of the country’s trade with Thailand passes through it, and it is the location of several huge and very lucrative casino complexes.
But the KNU never actually occupied Myawaddy, putting just a small contingent of fighters from allied People’s Defence Forces (PDF) to control the Battalion 275 army base, just outside the town. It kept the same police, immigration and local government officials in place to run the town and keep the border trade going.
One reason for the victorious insurgents’ reticence was the presence of other, powerful Karen armed militias which had until recently been allied to the military junta, and whose response to the KNU’s advance was uncertain. Avoiding clashes between different Karen groups was a priority, says the KNU leadership.
